srkamath
07-13 02:04 PM
First off, we are here to get our GC faster so the effort is commendable. ...........
The old interpretation was too complex to be correct..... between 2000 and 2007 it resulted in EB-2 getting shortchanged. EB3 approvals were more than DOUBLE of EB2 during those years.
2000 - 2007 Average
33,000 EB2 / year
83,000 EB3 / year
There are simply too many EB3 cases compared to the visas available.
EB2 may have been less retrogressed the last 3 years if the DOS had interpreted the law correctly. Visa numbers were mean to - SPREAD OUT, THEN SPILLED OVER downwards.
Prior to April-08, i don't ever EB2 applicants complaining about getting shortchanged - they understand the pain of someone having to wait for a decade to get a GC and probably didn't mind getting shortchanged.
Again - this is not about fairness, justice, merits of the applicants. It is about giving US employers the ability to fill posts when & where Americans are not available or willing.
The old interpretation was too complex to be correct..... between 2000 and 2007 it resulted in EB-2 getting shortchanged. EB3 approvals were more than DOUBLE of EB2 during those years.
2000 - 2007 Average
33,000 EB2 / year
83,000 EB3 / year
There are simply too many EB3 cases compared to the visas available.
EB2 may have been less retrogressed the last 3 years if the DOS had interpreted the law correctly. Visa numbers were mean to - SPREAD OUT, THEN SPILLED OVER downwards.
Prior to April-08, i don't ever EB2 applicants complaining about getting shortchanged - they understand the pain of someone having to wait for a decade to get a GC and probably didn't mind getting shortchanged.
Again - this is not about fairness, justice, merits of the applicants. It is about giving US employers the ability to fill posts when & where Americans are not available or willing.
wallpaper Waterloo Road - Episode 9
samrat_bhargava_vihari
02-02 04:59 PM
Lou knows it all; he knows it is the L-1 visa holders and not the H1B visa holders. But his viewers know what H1b is and have never heard of L1. So it helps him to cite H1B. He has shown "figures with 0 tax returns" on his show at times; they are from ppl who are now on H1B but were on L-1 in the past when they submitted the 0-tax returns.
???? How do you know that L-1 visa holders will not pay tax ?
???? How do you know that L-1 visa holders will not pay tax ?
unseenguy
06-26 06:04 PM
A lot of bickering going on in this thread is because many of us (including yours truely) find it very difficult to understand/calculate
1. Time Value of money (Wiki Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_value_of_money)).
2. Cash Flow (Wiki Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_flow))
3. Risk, not the english term - but the quantifiable aspects of it (Wiki link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk))
4. Leverage (Wiki Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance)))
I have worked on many of these concepts for > 2 years at work (I am a techie - but have also worked as a BA and part time quant for some time). I still personally find it very difficult to intuitively understand many of those concepts.
A proper conclusion of whether buying is better or renting is would involve each and every one of these concepts - and a lot of assumptions (what will be rate of inflation, how will the home prices behave etc). Since there would be so many assumptions - I doubt it will be at all possible to arrive at any definitive conclusion. Your best bet would probably be a monte carlo analysis and see which one is more probably the superior one.
So surprise of surprises - there is no "right answer"!!
That said - I personally follow the a modified model of "dynamic programming" that my college taught me in the 2nd year of bachelors. You CAN NOT estimate future variables with ANY accuracy. So optimize your present steps based on some cost function.
Applying that to the present problem - you CAN NOT estimate how the home prices will behave in future or how will the rent be or how will the inflation (or - horror of horrors - deflation) behave. The only thing you can optimize is your cash flow TODAY and the Present Value of any investment you hold. Present value = market value of your equity (even if the price is 40% lower than when you bought). Your "cost function" (maybe we should rename it to "wealth function") that you are trying to optimize is your net worth.
The result of the "dynamic programming" approach if probably not going to be the most optimal - but it will be the best that I know of. :-)
Best of luck guys.
Hi Puddon head :
Thanks for putting this all together. I support mathematical approaches. Monte carlo analysis is a good approach and it will always present the most pessimistic scenario.
For optimistic analysis you can use, 3 or 6 point analysis like, (P + O + 4*ML)/6. Although ML in this situation is a tricky part.
I agree that you are going to end up with a range rather than any specific number. I also agree that it is crucial to get the Most likely range with acceptable standard deviation :)
You can use six sigma approach also :) ;) (just kidding on this last one).
1. Time Value of money (Wiki Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_value_of_money)).
2. Cash Flow (Wiki Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_flow))
3. Risk, not the english term - but the quantifiable aspects of it (Wiki link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk))
4. Leverage (Wiki Link (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leverage_(finance)))
I have worked on many of these concepts for > 2 years at work (I am a techie - but have also worked as a BA and part time quant for some time). I still personally find it very difficult to intuitively understand many of those concepts.
A proper conclusion of whether buying is better or renting is would involve each and every one of these concepts - and a lot of assumptions (what will be rate of inflation, how will the home prices behave etc). Since there would be so many assumptions - I doubt it will be at all possible to arrive at any definitive conclusion. Your best bet would probably be a monte carlo analysis and see which one is more probably the superior one.
So surprise of surprises - there is no "right answer"!!
That said - I personally follow the a modified model of "dynamic programming" that my college taught me in the 2nd year of bachelors. You CAN NOT estimate future variables with ANY accuracy. So optimize your present steps based on some cost function.
Applying that to the present problem - you CAN NOT estimate how the home prices will behave in future or how will the rent be or how will the inflation (or - horror of horrors - deflation) behave. The only thing you can optimize is your cash flow TODAY and the Present Value of any investment you hold. Present value = market value of your equity (even if the price is 40% lower than when you bought). Your "cost function" (maybe we should rename it to "wealth function") that you are trying to optimize is your net worth.
The result of the "dynamic programming" approach if probably not going to be the most optimal - but it will be the best that I know of. :-)
Best of luck guys.
Hi Puddon head :
Thanks for putting this all together. I support mathematical approaches. Monte carlo analysis is a good approach and it will always present the most pessimistic scenario.
For optimistic analysis you can use, 3 or 6 point analysis like, (P + O + 4*ML)/6. Although ML in this situation is a tricky part.
I agree that you are going to end up with a range rather than any specific number. I also agree that it is crucial to get the Most likely range with acceptable standard deviation :)
You can use six sigma approach also :) ;) (just kidding on this last one).
2011 Waterloo Road Series 2 Episode
nogc_noproblem
08-06 11:53 AM
A man went into the proctologist's office for his first exam.
The doctor told him to have a seat. In the examination room and that he would be with him in just a few minutes. When the man sat down and began observing the tools he noticed there were three items on a stand next to the exam table.
A tube of K-Y jelly; A rubber glove; and A beer.
When the doctor finally came in the man said, "Look Doc, I'm a little confused. This is my first exam. I know what the K-Y is for, and I know what the glove is for, but can you tell me what the BEER is for?"
At that the doctor became noticeably outraged and stormed over to the the door. The doc flung the door open and yelled to his nurse.......
Dam it Helen! I said a BUTT LIGHT
The doctor told him to have a seat. In the examination room and that he would be with him in just a few minutes. When the man sat down and began observing the tools he noticed there were three items on a stand next to the exam table.
A tube of K-Y jelly; A rubber glove; and A beer.
When the doctor finally came in the man said, "Look Doc, I'm a little confused. This is my first exam. I know what the K-Y is for, and I know what the glove is for, but can you tell me what the BEER is for?"
At that the doctor became noticeably outraged and stormed over to the the door. The doc flung the door open and yelled to his nurse.......
Dam it Helen! I said a BUTT LIGHT
more...
ita
12-18 03:17 PM
Oh no! I was under spell of the reverse ego where I was so very sceptical about my religion, just skeptical not disbeliever( fortunately) ,thanks to the diluted versions that are sold to us about the Vedic Cuture under various pretexts(be it appeasement of other religions/religious competetion/anything else... not too interested anymore in digging into that).
I've nothing against you(In fact I find your views/posts sometimes interesting). You want to take liberty (think you know all that is there in Gita ,please yourself) and say whatever you want to say about Gita I can't stop you and even if I could I won't stop you beacuse I know progress can be made even without the aid of these scriptures.
(After all Budha, JK are all religious dropouts who did not support Vedic culture though were born in the very culture and paved beautiful path for all the religious dropouts that were already there/to come.)
But yes if you are worried about me being egoistic about my faith I would say thank you but don't worry . Na, I'll never let my self be a slave to mere ego when I know what I can get by trading the ego to egolessness.
I clearly mentioned in my earlier message that I was posting for the benefit of just few people (who could be like what I was few years back...for anyone that's wondering what I was ...I used to be so skeptical that I didn't want to do anything with any religion even mine, other than following the festivals and praying in ritualistic way as I couldn't be total disbeliever . I was victim to the confusing interpretations (of Gita and other scriptures )by people who were desperately trying to tie them with the evil practices existing in the society .
Divine/God/UtimateTruth can be realized through religious/Irreligious path.
Yes one needs to constantly question that is offered in the form of religion.
I've discovered what I need to and this is possible both religious/irreligious path.
As per me you posted what you think best and I posted what I've discovered and it's for the reader to accept your version/my version/new version or drop everything.
If you would like to or if it pleases you , you can come up with theories about my bruised feelings/hurt ego but only that is not the case.
Thank you.
oh, ya! So just because you follow a specific faith, it has got to be pious, and books of other religions have been doctored. There is nothing new to this view. Every man on this planet adheres to this view.
You see, every book has been changed during the course of human history. It doesn't mean that they were tottaly changed, but in a way there have been elements added and deleted from these books. So there are parts of these books which are good and teach us to love all of humanity and our sorroundings, then there are those parts in each such book, and those parts have been very carefully added by thugs and cheats during the period of time, such that they could keep control and grip on the comman people and at the same time spread their religion/world view. Anything that remotely peaches hate towards anyone cannot be the word of "God", whether it calls people of other religions as Kafirs ordering to kill them, or, whether it calls "non believers" as evil going to helll, or if it implements caste system. They are all the same. The true nature of the supreme being, the creator, is nothing but love and every thought in contradiction to the nature of supreme being is plain false. And older the religion, more the chances of that religion getting docotered by greater number of kings.
You have reasons to accept that these books have been doctored but your ego is not letting you accept that things you have believed in your life could be wrong. Thats not just your problem, any person following any religion has the same problem.
It is your responsibility that you don't pass on this disease on the mankind called religion, to your next generation. For too long the progress of minkind have been hindered by this disease. The progress you see in 21st century is not because of religion, but inspite of it. 99% of all inventions from Tesla's AC current to the first flight of Wright brother, they were all conducted in the country where there is separation of state and religion. I bet you, if religion was part of the consitution of US, no progress would have been possible.
Its time to shed your ego that my religion is pious and others religions are wrong because all oraganized religions are wrong. And even if you want to lean against some religion, try to question every part of every religion that is peached and see it with a critical view. it will become easier for you to separate the diamonds from the dunghill.
.
I've nothing against you(In fact I find your views/posts sometimes interesting). You want to take liberty (think you know all that is there in Gita ,please yourself) and say whatever you want to say about Gita I can't stop you and even if I could I won't stop you beacuse I know progress can be made even without the aid of these scriptures.
(After all Budha, JK are all religious dropouts who did not support Vedic culture though were born in the very culture and paved beautiful path for all the religious dropouts that were already there/to come.)
But yes if you are worried about me being egoistic about my faith I would say thank you but don't worry . Na, I'll never let my self be a slave to mere ego when I know what I can get by trading the ego to egolessness.
I clearly mentioned in my earlier message that I was posting for the benefit of just few people (who could be like what I was few years back...for anyone that's wondering what I was ...I used to be so skeptical that I didn't want to do anything with any religion even mine, other than following the festivals and praying in ritualistic way as I couldn't be total disbeliever . I was victim to the confusing interpretations (of Gita and other scriptures )by people who were desperately trying to tie them with the evil practices existing in the society .
Divine/God/UtimateTruth can be realized through religious/Irreligious path.
Yes one needs to constantly question that is offered in the form of religion.
I've discovered what I need to and this is possible both religious/irreligious path.
As per me you posted what you think best and I posted what I've discovered and it's for the reader to accept your version/my version/new version or drop everything.
If you would like to or if it pleases you , you can come up with theories about my bruised feelings/hurt ego but only that is not the case.
Thank you.
oh, ya! So just because you follow a specific faith, it has got to be pious, and books of other religions have been doctored. There is nothing new to this view. Every man on this planet adheres to this view.
You see, every book has been changed during the course of human history. It doesn't mean that they were tottaly changed, but in a way there have been elements added and deleted from these books. So there are parts of these books which are good and teach us to love all of humanity and our sorroundings, then there are those parts in each such book, and those parts have been very carefully added by thugs and cheats during the period of time, such that they could keep control and grip on the comman people and at the same time spread their religion/world view. Anything that remotely peaches hate towards anyone cannot be the word of "God", whether it calls people of other religions as Kafirs ordering to kill them, or, whether it calls "non believers" as evil going to helll, or if it implements caste system. They are all the same. The true nature of the supreme being, the creator, is nothing but love and every thought in contradiction to the nature of supreme being is plain false. And older the religion, more the chances of that religion getting docotered by greater number of kings.
You have reasons to accept that these books have been doctored but your ego is not letting you accept that things you have believed in your life could be wrong. Thats not just your problem, any person following any religion has the same problem.
It is your responsibility that you don't pass on this disease on the mankind called religion, to your next generation. For too long the progress of minkind have been hindered by this disease. The progress you see in 21st century is not because of religion, but inspite of it. 99% of all inventions from Tesla's AC current to the first flight of Wright brother, they were all conducted in the country where there is separation of state and religion. I bet you, if religion was part of the consitution of US, no progress would have been possible.
Its time to shed your ego that my religion is pious and others religions are wrong because all oraganized religions are wrong. And even if you want to lean against some religion, try to question every part of every religion that is peached and see it with a critical view. it will become easier for you to separate the diamonds from the dunghill.
.
unitednations
08-02 10:35 PM
You mean the spouse gets 245i benifit even if the spouse was not present here on dec 2000 and came after 2001.
I haven't read the memo in a long time. You would need to research it.
It just piqued my interest because it could be used by people who need the 245i benefit but weren't eligible for it and they got it through their spouse even though spouse may have not needed it and spouse relationship didn't even exist at that time.
I haven't read the memo in a long time. You would need to research it.
It just piqued my interest because it could be used by people who need the 245i benefit but weren't eligible for it and they got it through their spouse even though spouse may have not needed it and spouse relationship didn't even exist at that time.
more...
nixstor
11-15 12:25 PM
This guy needs to go. He is a total joke. Where does he put his $$ in? Every one knows he owns stock of most companies that has outsourced jobs to India/other countries. I am sure he has his money everywhere in Cisco/Msoft whom he bashes along with Kim B. Check this page who want to see him go. There are lot of legal immigration folks who are there.
http://www.bluelatinos.org/firelou
Should we be talking to FOX news to get them do a program on how he changes his stand? How many times he brings only one side of the story?
http://www.bluelatinos.org/firelou
Should we be talking to FOX news to get them do a program on how he changes his stand? How many times he brings only one side of the story?
2010 Waterloo Road 7x02 HDTV
gcbikari
08-11 02:53 PM
Keep more lessons coming...don't worry about the #2 that you forgot
Thought #2 was a dirty lesson and intentionally removed.
Thought #2 was a dirty lesson and intentionally removed.
more...
gc28262
03-24 12:40 PM
I have full sympathy for anyone that has not broken any laws including OP and 'leoindiano". If I had the powers to approve green cards, I would give them away to him and his brother!
The problem here is no one (consulting company/employee) bothered to make sure that a person on H-1B was allowed to do consulting. I'm not sure who dropped the ball - companies, employees, or the immigration lawyers. But someone should have raised a flag when the type of job was really a temp job. Unfortunately that did not happen.
Now that the damage has been done, and USCIS is coming after such folks, they are upset that it is happening to them. Again, do note that I am not saying the consultants themselves are less skilled than anyone with FT job. I'm just saying that at the time they got into consulting they did not think of the various consequences. Maybe because no one ever thought that working at different locations, benching, temp nature of the jobs were all against H-1B visa rules?
You get my point?
sledge_hammer,
Why don't you define what a "permanent" job is ?
You think FT job is a permanent job and consulting is a temporary job ? I don't think so.
There are consultants working for years in a consulting firm. ( Don't bring H1B into the picture) . There are many FT employees being laid off from companies before contractors are let go. Contractors are temporary from a client's perspective not from the sponsoring employer's perspective.
Try to define a permanent vs temporary job in US without bringing H1B into the picture.
The problem here is no one (consulting company/employee) bothered to make sure that a person on H-1B was allowed to do consulting. I'm not sure who dropped the ball - companies, employees, or the immigration lawyers. But someone should have raised a flag when the type of job was really a temp job. Unfortunately that did not happen.
Now that the damage has been done, and USCIS is coming after such folks, they are upset that it is happening to them. Again, do note that I am not saying the consultants themselves are less skilled than anyone with FT job. I'm just saying that at the time they got into consulting they did not think of the various consequences. Maybe because no one ever thought that working at different locations, benching, temp nature of the jobs were all against H-1B visa rules?
You get my point?
sledge_hammer,
Why don't you define what a "permanent" job is ?
You think FT job is a permanent job and consulting is a temporary job ? I don't think so.
There are consultants working for years in a consulting firm. ( Don't bring H1B into the picture) . There are many FT employees being laid off from companies before contractors are let go. Contractors are temporary from a client's perspective not from the sponsoring employer's perspective.
Try to define a permanent vs temporary job in US without bringing H1B into the picture.
hair fisherbrown,waterloo road
Macaca
02-22 11:49 AM
Hey Chinese! can we have more of the following here (http://www.washingtonwatch.com/bills/show/110_SN_9.html#commentform).
I am almost 7 years in this country and have paid hundred of thousands of dollars in payroll taxes, and now stuck with the EB priority date.
I want to say there are many good things going on in the world. Many people take the technology advancement and good life for granted, but behind the scene, there are many people who are doing the real hard work, and we are part of them.
The reason I came here is I thought this country can turn my talent into fortune and create opportunities for many people. My college roommate in China created the Linux Virtual Server in his PhD thesis and still leads the LVS project. The government covers their 100% medical + 100% housing + 80%-100% pension. But if he did that in the States, he would be very rich and can achieve more goals.
The current immigration system is neither pro- nor anti-immigration. It is just a limbo system. Everything getting in is just stuck there. Some of my friends have gone back China because they don�t want to wait.
I am almost 7 years in this country and have paid hundred of thousands of dollars in payroll taxes, and now stuck with the EB priority date.
I want to say there are many good things going on in the world. Many people take the technology advancement and good life for granted, but behind the scene, there are many people who are doing the real hard work, and we are part of them.
The reason I came here is I thought this country can turn my talent into fortune and create opportunities for many people. My college roommate in China created the Linux Virtual Server in his PhD thesis and still leads the LVS project. The government covers their 100% medical + 100% housing + 80%-100% pension. But if he did that in the States, he would be very rich and can achieve more goals.
The current immigration system is neither pro- nor anti-immigration. It is just a limbo system. Everything getting in is just stuck there. Some of my friends have gone back China because they don�t want to wait.
more...
thomachan72
08-06 04:28 PM
THERE IS THIS GOOD OLD BARBER IN SOME CITY IN THE AMERICA....
ONE DAY A FLORIST GOES TO HIM FOR A HAIRCUT. AFTER THE CUT, HE GOES TO PAY THE BARBER AND THE BARBER REPLIES: "I AM SORRY. I CANNOT ACCEPT MONEY FROM YOU.I AM DOING COMMUNITY SERVICE." THE FLORIST IS HAPPY AND LEAVES THE SHOP.
THE NEXT MORNING WHEN THE BARBER GOES TO OPEN HIS SHOP, THERE IS A THANK YOU CARD AND A DOZEN ROSES WAITING AT HIS DOOR.
A POLICEMAN GOES FOR A HAIRCUT AND HE ALSO GOES TO PAY THE BARBER AFTER THE CUT. BUT THE BARBER REPLIES:"I AM SORRY. I CANNOT ACCEPT MONEY FROM YOU. I AM DOING COMMUNITY SERVICE." THE COP IS HAPPY AND LEAVES THE SHOP.
THE NEXT MORNING THE BARBER GOES TO OPEN HIS SHOP, THERE IS A THANK YOU CARD AND A DOZEN DONUTS WAITING AT HIS DOOR.
AN INDIAN SOFTWARE ENGINEER GOES FOR A HAIRCUT AND HE ALSO GOES TO PAY THE BARBER AFTER THE CUT. BUT THE BARBER REPLIES: I AM SORRY. I CANNOT ACCEPT MONEY FROM YOU. I AM DOING COMMUNITY SERVICE. THE INDIAN SOFTWARE ENGINEER IS HAPPY AND LEAVES.
..Enjoy
THE NEXT MORNING WHEN THE BARBER GOES TO OPEN HIS SHOP, GUESS WHAT HE
FINDS
THERE...
CAN YOU GUESS?
DO YOU KNOW THE ANSWER YET?
COME ON, THINK LIKE A INDIAN....
A DOZEN INDIANS WAITING FOR A HAIRCUT........!!!!!
well most of us guessed the answer because as soon as we read about the barber we were thinking of asking whether you knew his address!!
ONE DAY A FLORIST GOES TO HIM FOR A HAIRCUT. AFTER THE CUT, HE GOES TO PAY THE BARBER AND THE BARBER REPLIES: "I AM SORRY. I CANNOT ACCEPT MONEY FROM YOU.I AM DOING COMMUNITY SERVICE." THE FLORIST IS HAPPY AND LEAVES THE SHOP.
THE NEXT MORNING WHEN THE BARBER GOES TO OPEN HIS SHOP, THERE IS A THANK YOU CARD AND A DOZEN ROSES WAITING AT HIS DOOR.
A POLICEMAN GOES FOR A HAIRCUT AND HE ALSO GOES TO PAY THE BARBER AFTER THE CUT. BUT THE BARBER REPLIES:"I AM SORRY. I CANNOT ACCEPT MONEY FROM YOU. I AM DOING COMMUNITY SERVICE." THE COP IS HAPPY AND LEAVES THE SHOP.
THE NEXT MORNING THE BARBER GOES TO OPEN HIS SHOP, THERE IS A THANK YOU CARD AND A DOZEN DONUTS WAITING AT HIS DOOR.
AN INDIAN SOFTWARE ENGINEER GOES FOR A HAIRCUT AND HE ALSO GOES TO PAY THE BARBER AFTER THE CUT. BUT THE BARBER REPLIES: I AM SORRY. I CANNOT ACCEPT MONEY FROM YOU. I AM DOING COMMUNITY SERVICE. THE INDIAN SOFTWARE ENGINEER IS HAPPY AND LEAVES.
..Enjoy
THE NEXT MORNING WHEN THE BARBER GOES TO OPEN HIS SHOP, GUESS WHAT HE
FINDS
THERE...
CAN YOU GUESS?
DO YOU KNOW THE ANSWER YET?
COME ON, THINK LIKE A INDIAN....
A DOZEN INDIANS WAITING FOR A HAIRCUT........!!!!!
well most of us guessed the answer because as soon as we read about the barber we were thinking of asking whether you knew his address!!
hot paul from waterloo road
hiralal
06-11 11:19 PM
Mortgage of $95 dollars in California ????? man, even I would have purchased a house there ..once the honeymoon is over (100 dollar rent), even a kid can guess where this house will end up (and she wants help from govt ???) ..wonder how many such loans were bundled ..and how many houses will end up in foreclosure ?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQ_ZgC75Zfyw
--------------
Will the coming wave of OptionARM mortgage resets look like the wave of subprime defaults?
This Bloomberg piece paints a sobering picture of where things are at, and it's clear right off the bat why the resets are going to kill a number of buyers:
Shirley Breitmaier’s mortgage payment started out at $98 when she refinanced her three-bedroom home in Galt, California, in 2007. The 73-year-old widow may see it jump to $3,500 a month in two years.
Breitmaier took out a payment-option adjustable rate mortgage, a loan popular during the housing boom for its low minimum payments before resetting at higher costs later.
We're not sure what the housing market is like in Galt, California, but if we had to guess, Ms. Breitmaier is pretty under water right now, and a refi is probably out of the picture. Now this might not kill the banks -- after all, the chart below is well known and we're guessing that much of their portfolio has been slammed accordingly. But in terms of flooding the market with foreclosed home, slamming prices, it's too early to believe that it's all priced in.
And generally, the effect that will have on the economy and consumer confidence will be brutal:
The delinquency rate for payment-option ARMs originated in 2006 and bundled into securities is soaring, according to a May 5 report from Deutsche Bank AG. Over the past year, payments 60 days late or more on option ARMs originated in 2006 have almost doubled to 42.44 percent from 23.26 percent, Deutsche Bank said. For 2007 loans, the rate has climbed from 10.1 percent to 35.25 percent.
“We’re already seeing much higher levels of delinquencies of these option ARM loans even before you reach the point of the recast,” said Paul Leonard, the California director of the non- profit Center for Responsible Lending.
The threat of soaring payments has counselors at Housing and Economic Rights Advocates busy.
“There’s a level of hopelessness to the phone calls now,” said Brown.
-----------
More than $750 billion of option ARMs were originated in the U.S. between 2004 and 2008, according to data from First American and Inside Mortgage Finance of Bethesda, Maryland. California accounted for 58 percent of option ARMs, according to a report by T2 Partners LLC, citing data from Amherst Securities and Loan Performance.
Shirley Breitmaier took out a $315,000 option ARM to refinance a previous loan on her house.
Her payments started at 3/8 of 1 percent, or less than $100 a month, according to Cameron Pannabecker, the owner of Cal-Pro Mortgage and the Mortgage Modification Center in Stockton, California, who is working with Breitmaier. The loan allowed her to forgo higher payments by adding the unpaid balance to the principal. She’ll be required to start paying principal and interest to amortize the debt when the loan reaches 145 percent of the original amount borrowed.
‘Pick a Pay’
Such terms aren’t typical for option ARMs, which were also known as “pick-a-pay” mortgages. Interest rates on many payment option ARMS are “typically very low in the first one to three months” and can be as little as 2 percent, according to Federal Reserve data.
Breitmaier, who has been in the home for 45 years and lives with her daughter, now fears she will lose the off-white stucco house that’s a hub for her family.
“I wish the government would bail us out like the banks and the car businesses,” she said. “I’d like to go from here to the grave next to my husband.”
Paul Financial LLC originated the loan and it was sold to GMAC, Pannabecker said.
“This loan is a perfect example front to back, bottom to top, of everything that has gone wrong over the last five to seven years,” Pannabecker said. “The consumer had a product pushed on them that they had no hope of understanding.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQ_ZgC75Zfyw
--------------
Will the coming wave of OptionARM mortgage resets look like the wave of subprime defaults?
This Bloomberg piece paints a sobering picture of where things are at, and it's clear right off the bat why the resets are going to kill a number of buyers:
Shirley Breitmaier’s mortgage payment started out at $98 when she refinanced her three-bedroom home in Galt, California, in 2007. The 73-year-old widow may see it jump to $3,500 a month in two years.
Breitmaier took out a payment-option adjustable rate mortgage, a loan popular during the housing boom for its low minimum payments before resetting at higher costs later.
We're not sure what the housing market is like in Galt, California, but if we had to guess, Ms. Breitmaier is pretty under water right now, and a refi is probably out of the picture. Now this might not kill the banks -- after all, the chart below is well known and we're guessing that much of their portfolio has been slammed accordingly. But in terms of flooding the market with foreclosed home, slamming prices, it's too early to believe that it's all priced in.
And generally, the effect that will have on the economy and consumer confidence will be brutal:
The delinquency rate for payment-option ARMs originated in 2006 and bundled into securities is soaring, according to a May 5 report from Deutsche Bank AG. Over the past year, payments 60 days late or more on option ARMs originated in 2006 have almost doubled to 42.44 percent from 23.26 percent, Deutsche Bank said. For 2007 loans, the rate has climbed from 10.1 percent to 35.25 percent.
“We’re already seeing much higher levels of delinquencies of these option ARM loans even before you reach the point of the recast,” said Paul Leonard, the California director of the non- profit Center for Responsible Lending.
The threat of soaring payments has counselors at Housing and Economic Rights Advocates busy.
“There’s a level of hopelessness to the phone calls now,” said Brown.
-----------
More than $750 billion of option ARMs were originated in the U.S. between 2004 and 2008, according to data from First American and Inside Mortgage Finance of Bethesda, Maryland. California accounted for 58 percent of option ARMs, according to a report by T2 Partners LLC, citing data from Amherst Securities and Loan Performance.
Shirley Breitmaier took out a $315,000 option ARM to refinance a previous loan on her house.
Her payments started at 3/8 of 1 percent, or less than $100 a month, according to Cameron Pannabecker, the owner of Cal-Pro Mortgage and the Mortgage Modification Center in Stockton, California, who is working with Breitmaier. The loan allowed her to forgo higher payments by adding the unpaid balance to the principal. She’ll be required to start paying principal and interest to amortize the debt when the loan reaches 145 percent of the original amount borrowed.
‘Pick a Pay’
Such terms aren’t typical for option ARMs, which were also known as “pick-a-pay” mortgages. Interest rates on many payment option ARMS are “typically very low in the first one to three months” and can be as little as 2 percent, according to Federal Reserve data.
Breitmaier, who has been in the home for 45 years and lives with her daughter, now fears she will lose the off-white stucco house that’s a hub for her family.
“I wish the government would bail us out like the banks and the car businesses,” she said. “I’d like to go from here to the grave next to my husband.”
Paul Financial LLC originated the loan and it was sold to GMAC, Pannabecker said.
“This loan is a perfect example front to back, bottom to top, of everything that has gone wrong over the last five to seven years,” Pannabecker said. “The consumer had a product pushed on them that they had no hope of understanding.”
more...
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cinqsit
03-26 03:52 PM
UnitedNations
What I take from your reply is that if the company is on their radar (for reasons that they will never disclose or we will never know - but we can assume some kind of fraudulent activity - like what you suggest too many h1's etc) they can (and currently are for h1 applications) apply all of their might to deny applications.
Most of us have become pompous and are living in a big bubble. We think that since we pay taxes we are special. I cant imagine how out of touch with reality we are ....when I see postings like these for example remove EB1/EB2/EB3..whatever classification quota since we "the special class" of people are suffering, remove per country limit since we have paid taxes for 10 years, we will solve the housing crisis if we get gc's, we are responsible for creating innovation, progress and jobs (though i agree small percentage of the total pool may well be responsible for some innovation but not all), we are some sort of super humans , calling up senators/congressman - wont they be more interested in protecting their constituent's -- who I hate to say is not us (that is would be immigrants)
Isn't it time for everyone to wake up and see the reality ? Why exacerbate the current conditions that will create even a bigger backlash? can we all handle that ? I think the answer is NO
What I take from your reply is that if the company is on their radar (for reasons that they will never disclose or we will never know - but we can assume some kind of fraudulent activity - like what you suggest too many h1's etc) they can (and currently are for h1 applications) apply all of their might to deny applications.
Most of us have become pompous and are living in a big bubble. We think that since we pay taxes we are special. I cant imagine how out of touch with reality we are ....when I see postings like these for example remove EB1/EB2/EB3..whatever classification quota since we "the special class" of people are suffering, remove per country limit since we have paid taxes for 10 years, we will solve the housing crisis if we get gc's, we are responsible for creating innovation, progress and jobs (though i agree small percentage of the total pool may well be responsible for some innovation but not all), we are some sort of super humans , calling up senators/congressman - wont they be more interested in protecting their constituent's -- who I hate to say is not us (that is would be immigrants)
Isn't it time for everyone to wake up and see the reality ? Why exacerbate the current conditions that will create even a bigger backlash? can we all handle that ? I think the answer is NO
tattoo Waterloo Road Bolton - Page 2
GCOP
07-13 09:36 AM
Does IV want to change the format of the letter ? If so, modified letter from IV will be appreciated. I thank pani_6 and IV's effort to address the EB-3 situation. If necessary, IV can also arrange meeting with Department of State for discussion of EB-3 Visa allotment and delays. EB-3 situation is really dier. IV is requested to please arrange meeting with DOS.
more...
pictures Waterloo Road Blackpool
ganguteli
03-25 12:40 PM
UN I think you are hyping up the current situation too much.
Yes there are raids and arrests,
But it is not so bad. You are saying as if everyone in consulting is getting denied. If it was so bad, all immigration forums would have been filled up with denial posts and cries for help. Maybe you have encountered people who only faced denials and not the entire spectrum. Thus your judgement may be influenced.
Yes there are raids and arrests,
But it is not so bad. You are saying as if everyone in consulting is getting denied. If it was so bad, all immigration forums would have been filled up with denial posts and cries for help. Maybe you have encountered people who only faced denials and not the entire spectrum. Thus your judgement may be influenced.
dresses Waterloo Road Emergency
GCKaMaara
12-17 04:24 PM
LOL!
Nice to see some light moments here :)
Nice to see some light moments here :)
more...
makeup will mellor waterloo road.
Macaca
02-25 07:50 PM
Please post (with URL i.e. verifiable) Lou Dobbs lies. He is believed by some persons in other immigration forums. Thanks.
girlfriend Programmes - Waterloo Road
sledge_hammer
06-05 05:17 PM
Thanks for your comment!
If your other investment is going to be a CD, then you are better off putting down 20%. That 20% would also exempt you from any PMI you will have to pay if you only made 10% down. I assume you are going to have to pay PMI w/ the 10% loan, wouldn't you?
As for #8, "puddonhead" has rightly corrected me; it should not have been included under expense.
I really am by no means competent to give financial advice. So please take my opinion with a grain of salt :D
Your analysis is so spot on except for item #8 and item # 9. I have a question though.. The example you have given suits my scenario so well. I am planning to buy a house (310k ) very soon. The loan offers I have from my lender has interest rates pretty much the same for both 10% down payment and 20% down payment, 5.0 with 20% and 5.25 with 10% down payment. I can down pay 10% right away and the other 10% is also available in a risk free(can withdraw without penalty) cd which yield me a return of 3.5% . So which is better for me 10% or 20% down pay. thanks in advance.
As for buying or renting..it is more of a personal choice - to me, buying a house has tangible benefits over renting.. like a sense of entitlement to call some place ur true home and most likely a good enviroment for raising the kids. Life has phases like education, marriage, kids, job, etc..Now that I am into my 30's, I would like to see
what it feels like to have owned a home.
If your other investment is going to be a CD, then you are better off putting down 20%. That 20% would also exempt you from any PMI you will have to pay if you only made 10% down. I assume you are going to have to pay PMI w/ the 10% loan, wouldn't you?
As for #8, "puddonhead" has rightly corrected me; it should not have been included under expense.
I really am by no means competent to give financial advice. So please take my opinion with a grain of salt :D
Your analysis is so spot on except for item #8 and item # 9. I have a question though.. The example you have given suits my scenario so well. I am planning to buy a house (310k ) very soon. The loan offers I have from my lender has interest rates pretty much the same for both 10% down payment and 20% down payment, 5.0 with 20% and 5.25 with 10% down payment. I can down pay 10% right away and the other 10% is also available in a risk free(can withdraw without penalty) cd which yield me a return of 3.5% . So which is better for me 10% or 20% down pay. thanks in advance.
As for buying or renting..it is more of a personal choice - to me, buying a house has tangible benefits over renting.. like a sense of entitlement to call some place ur true home and most likely a good enviroment for raising the kids. Life has phases like education, marriage, kids, job, etc..Now that I am into my 30's, I would like to see
what it feels like to have owned a home.
hairstyles #39;Waterloo Road#39; romance
senthil1
04-07 12:05 PM
Will 115k enough by seeing 133k applications in one day? If 115k is reached we will ask unlimited. So there should be some system to see whether those115k H1b is used properly. Employers should not wait till october and they should get people when they require. If most of the H1b quota is used by bodyshoppers where will top US companies get?
How do you find H1 quota to be "unlimited"? And how is this bill going to prevent "unlimited numbers" that did not exist in the first place? I thought S.2611 and HR1645 propose to increase H1 quota to 115K, from the existing 65K H1b/yr. Does this increase make H1 quota "unlimited". I am ignorant about it, could you please help me understand.
How do you find H1 quota to be "unlimited"? And how is this bill going to prevent "unlimited numbers" that did not exist in the first place? I thought S.2611 and HR1645 propose to increase H1 quota to 115K, from the existing 65K H1b/yr. Does this increase make H1 quota "unlimited". I am ignorant about it, could you please help me understand.
sledge_hammer
06-23 12:38 PM
I don't believe the housing market slump will last more than 3 years!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Echo boomers a lifeline for embattled U.S. housing | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE55L0AO20090622)
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The children of baby boomers will eventually resuscitate the pummeled U.S. housing market, Harvard University said on Monday, but in the meantime, limits on income and credit are sustaining the three-year bust.
The highest unemployment in almost 26 years, record foreclosures and rigid lending threaten to overcome emerging home sales progress despite unprecedented efforts by the Obama administration, Harvard's State of the Nation's Housing 2009 report said.
Echo boomers, the children of the post-World War Two baby boomer generation, offer a massive source of support for housing, the study said. The generation is entering the peak home buying and renting ages of 25 to 44 and numbers over five million people more than did their parents' record-sized group in the 1970s.
"Echo boomers are larger than the baby boomer population. Couple that with immigration and you have the seeds, the possibility of a housing recovery," Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, said in an interview.
The group will bolster demand for the next 10 years and beyond, supporting the sagging housing market even if immigration drops, the study said.
The challenges are myriad, however, said Retsinas, a widely followed housing industry expert and former senior official in the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
"We have to find a way to stabilize housing finance in this country," he said.
A healthy housing market is integral to a growing economy. In the current cycle, the housing crash has propelled the economy into its longest recession since the Great Depression. Jobs lost to the recession have derailed any housing recovery.
"Seedlings of the housing recovery have to come through this thicket of job losses and foreclosures," Retsinas said. "The housing market has not seen these challenges for over 60 years."
Mortgage rates have risen from all-time lows in the past two months despite massive government steps to keep them down.
Foreclosures escalate as federal efforts to keep borrowers in their houses cannot keep pace with loan failures caused by job losses or punishing home price erosion.
THIN SILVER LININGS
Home sales have started to pick up, thanks mostly to a first-time buyer tax credit this year of up to $8,000 and demand for foreclosure properties at bargain-basement prices.
"While we do see some signs of stabilization, you can barely see those silver linings," Retsinas said.
The lending pendulum swung vastly after the unsustainable five-year record home price surge early this decade. Lenders clamped down after lax conditions spawned record home sales and then fueled the torrent of foreclosures.
Now, more than 85 percent of mortgage loans are created through the government and its agencies. Private lending companies either shut down or slammed on the credit brakes to prevent a repeat of major losses on flawed loans.
What happens to mortgage availability currently rests in the hands of the federal government, the report said.
But Retsinas noted: "Eventually you want a sustainable credit system, and that has to include private capital."
The share of minority households, hurt most in the housing crisis, will rise to 35 percent in 2020 from 29 percent in 2005, the study projected. Those households typically have lower average incomes and wealth, and higher unemployment.
In Cleveland, Boston and Washington, DC, price declines at the low end of the market through December were more than twice those at the high end in percentage terms, while in San Francisco they were nearly three times greater.
Real median household incomes in all age groups under 55 have not risen since 2000, the Harvard study said. For the first time in at least 40 years, there is a chance that median household income will end the decade lower than where it started.
The severity of the recession could hold incomes down for years.
"The number of households that were severely cost-burdened -- people paying over 50 percent of their income for housing -- has grown dramatically," Retsinas said. The number spiked by 30 percent to 17.9 million between 2001 and 2007, the most recent data available.
"The reality is that it's not just the cost of a house, but it's how much you make," he said. "Of course as people struggle with their jobs, as they lose that second job, they lose that overtime, their income drops make it more difficult to pay."
Echo boomers will expand the number of needed housing units. But they also likely will enter the housing market with lower real incomes than people the same age did a decade ago, the study said.
"While fundamentally we see what could be the foundation for long-term recovery, we still have to get through today's challenges," said Retsinas.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Echo boomers a lifeline for embattled U.S. housing | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE55L0AO20090622)
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The children of baby boomers will eventually resuscitate the pummeled U.S. housing market, Harvard University said on Monday, but in the meantime, limits on income and credit are sustaining the three-year bust.
The highest unemployment in almost 26 years, record foreclosures and rigid lending threaten to overcome emerging home sales progress despite unprecedented efforts by the Obama administration, Harvard's State of the Nation's Housing 2009 report said.
Echo boomers, the children of the post-World War Two baby boomer generation, offer a massive source of support for housing, the study said. The generation is entering the peak home buying and renting ages of 25 to 44 and numbers over five million people more than did their parents' record-sized group in the 1970s.
"Echo boomers are larger than the baby boomer population. Couple that with immigration and you have the seeds, the possibility of a housing recovery," Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, said in an interview.
The group will bolster demand for the next 10 years and beyond, supporting the sagging housing market even if immigration drops, the study said.
The challenges are myriad, however, said Retsinas, a widely followed housing industry expert and former senior official in the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
"We have to find a way to stabilize housing finance in this country," he said.
A healthy housing market is integral to a growing economy. In the current cycle, the housing crash has propelled the economy into its longest recession since the Great Depression. Jobs lost to the recession have derailed any housing recovery.
"Seedlings of the housing recovery have to come through this thicket of job losses and foreclosures," Retsinas said. "The housing market has not seen these challenges for over 60 years."
Mortgage rates have risen from all-time lows in the past two months despite massive government steps to keep them down.
Foreclosures escalate as federal efforts to keep borrowers in their houses cannot keep pace with loan failures caused by job losses or punishing home price erosion.
THIN SILVER LININGS
Home sales have started to pick up, thanks mostly to a first-time buyer tax credit this year of up to $8,000 and demand for foreclosure properties at bargain-basement prices.
"While we do see some signs of stabilization, you can barely see those silver linings," Retsinas said.
The lending pendulum swung vastly after the unsustainable five-year record home price surge early this decade. Lenders clamped down after lax conditions spawned record home sales and then fueled the torrent of foreclosures.
Now, more than 85 percent of mortgage loans are created through the government and its agencies. Private lending companies either shut down or slammed on the credit brakes to prevent a repeat of major losses on flawed loans.
What happens to mortgage availability currently rests in the hands of the federal government, the report said.
But Retsinas noted: "Eventually you want a sustainable credit system, and that has to include private capital."
The share of minority households, hurt most in the housing crisis, will rise to 35 percent in 2020 from 29 percent in 2005, the study projected. Those households typically have lower average incomes and wealth, and higher unemployment.
In Cleveland, Boston and Washington, DC, price declines at the low end of the market through December were more than twice those at the high end in percentage terms, while in San Francisco they were nearly three times greater.
Real median household incomes in all age groups under 55 have not risen since 2000, the Harvard study said. For the first time in at least 40 years, there is a chance that median household income will end the decade lower than where it started.
The severity of the recession could hold incomes down for years.
"The number of households that were severely cost-burdened -- people paying over 50 percent of their income for housing -- has grown dramatically," Retsinas said. The number spiked by 30 percent to 17.9 million between 2001 and 2007, the most recent data available.
"The reality is that it's not just the cost of a house, but it's how much you make," he said. "Of course as people struggle with their jobs, as they lose that second job, they lose that overtime, their income drops make it more difficult to pay."
Echo boomers will expand the number of needed housing units. But they also likely will enter the housing market with lower real incomes than people the same age did a decade ago, the study said.
"While fundamentally we see what could be the foundation for long-term recovery, we still have to get through today's challenges," said Retsinas.
Ramba
09-28 01:50 PM
Last time the CIR bill died because a lot of people are against granting amnesty to illegal immigrants ( both Republicans and democrats ) . The president alone ( read Obama ) cannot decide that he wants to pass this bill because remember last year Bush was strongly in favour of the CIR bill and even had a conference with Senate leaders to push it through but it failed . The politicians know that the American people don't like the bill but they have to show that they are concerned with solving the illegal immigrant issue. This CIR bill is only a political gimmick. It came into picture because of the upcoming elections and next year I am pretty sure with no more elections the interest would not be that much to get it passed ( although I am sure there will be a lot of people interested in getting it to the House and the Senate ).
As someone said before if they try to bring some anti - highly skilled workers bill then the big companies are sure to cry out loud ( Microsoft , Cisco , Oracle etc etc ) and the politicians don't listen to us but they will surely listen to them. They have got the clout to get themselves heard.
Right. CIR (amnesty bill) is a gimmick to win vote bank. Mcain drafted in 2007 in view of winning hispanic bank in his prez bid. Recently he flip floped to concervatives that enforcement is first. Though BO has reservation about EB/H1B/oursourcing, he is right and has right judgement. If unemployment reaches historically high, how one can expect they will increase the foreign workers? They are elected by USC not by H1Bs or GCs os AOS guys. If economy bounces back, if more jobs are created, if market needs more workforce then they (Mcain or BO) will increase H1/EB etc. Otherwise, they (either BO or Mcain) wont touch the immigration that increses foreign worker.
As someone said before if they try to bring some anti - highly skilled workers bill then the big companies are sure to cry out loud ( Microsoft , Cisco , Oracle etc etc ) and the politicians don't listen to us but they will surely listen to them. They have got the clout to get themselves heard.
Right. CIR (amnesty bill) is a gimmick to win vote bank. Mcain drafted in 2007 in view of winning hispanic bank in his prez bid. Recently he flip floped to concervatives that enforcement is first. Though BO has reservation about EB/H1B/oursourcing, he is right and has right judgement. If unemployment reaches historically high, how one can expect they will increase the foreign workers? They are elected by USC not by H1Bs or GCs os AOS guys. If economy bounces back, if more jobs are created, if market needs more workforce then they (Mcain or BO) will increase H1/EB etc. Otherwise, they (either BO or Mcain) wont touch the immigration that increses foreign worker.
